What is Joseph Effect ? |
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What is it?
The Joseph Effect is a term derived from the Old Testament story about the Pharaoh's dream as recounted by Joseph. The vision led the ancient Egyptians to expect a crop famine lasting seven years to follow seven years of a bountiful harvest.
Good & Bad
• Seven good years are known as the Joseph Effect, while the seven bad years are known as The Noah Effect. Interestingly, the seven-year cycle is commonly found in modern economic analysis as a predictor of recession timing.
Lessons Derived
The Joseph Effect and the Noah Effect are early examples taken from history showing that man was attuned to cycles in nature and wanted to become better able to predict future outcomes from recent experience. Human behavior is affected in great part by recent experience, with a tendency to forget some of the more random, and disruptive, lessons of the distant past.
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